NFL Situation Spotlight #97 – Rush Offense Rating (ROF) Mis-Matches

NFL Situation Spotlight #97 – Rush Offense Rating (ROF) Mis-Matches

Here’s just a scenario that’ll most likely be valued by people’purists’ who consider the efficacy of some teams racing game may be the largest variable in deciding who wins and who insures the spread. It concerns teams having an exceptional Rush Offense Rating (ROF) in comparison to their existing competition plus it’s produced a listing of 135-52 ATS as 1994, later adding lots of additional important ailments.

Very briefly, a team ROF is figured by carrying a teams moderate yards-per-rush on crime and adapting that  Link vào cmd368 this figure to get its product quality of dash guards this team has faced season-to-date.

An ROF preceding 0 indicates a team which is stronger than ordinary in this section whereas an ROF below 0 suggests that the alternative.

In the instance of Situation #9-7, we’ll be studying teams using an ROF that’s at +0.50 points greater compared to their competitors evaluation .

If it has to do with ROF, a 1/2 purpose is significant and can often indicate a gap of 1012 rankings from the league positions because of this particular statistic.

In their, teams which have a lot higher ROF aren’t exceptionally profitable, however, once they chance to be playing with a team which did well concerning straight-up wins while in the prior season, we’ve got an invaluable handicapping tool in our disposal.

Since 1994, teams using an ROF at 0.50 points greater than their existing competitor are an unbelievable 313-218 ATS (58.9percent ) between Week 4 and 17 of the regular season, if this competition happened for a playoff team at yesteryear . On the last 14 decades, this tendency has now produced a profit of $7320 if wagering $110.00 to win $100.00 on each match.

It’s among the strongest trends I have run into on the last few years and it’s turned into a profit in each and every season since 1994 aside from just one (2006) and has been a good 32-21 ATS this past year.

Thus, what may be the actual thing for this particular situation and just why is it successful? The solution for the question are available by looking closer at a few of the stats supporting it.

Out from those 531 teams included with this example on the previous 14 decades, 63.0percent of them have experienced a winning record, or even perhaps a list of .500, nonetheless, the normal spread was +0.7 points which team continues to be an underdog 54.4percent of their time.

Yet another hint is based with how situation is newest at Week 5 and 4 (the initial 14 days of this growing season it’s busy ). Teams using a much superior ROF confronting a playoff team in a year ago will be 59-27 ATS before Week 6.

These stats show is that, there’s an inherent prejudice that players have towards teams which were from the play in the former calendar year, notably when gambling on matches early in the subsequent season.

This bias involving teams which forced it in to the previous post-season can efficiently create a circumstance where there’s is certainly’line-value’ in gambling contrary to them, specially in case where they’re facing a team that’s hurrying the ball more effortlessly.

Present play off teams are in reality a bad bet completely upto Week 16 of the subsequent season and also possess a historical listing of 1077-1184 ATS as 1994 for a winning percentage of just 47.6 percent.

But while this tendency is excessively profitable using only the two Primary states in the list previously, there’s just a 3rd and last state I love to add to be able to reduce the variety of possible wagers entailed while preserving a much higher amount of benefit –essentially increasing our ROI (return on investment).

This last state specifies that, as well as a substantial advantage with respect to ROF over their present competition, the team under consideration also has to provide an ROF that’s at 0.50 points more than their ROF from the last season. .

Teams in this example have a custom to be under valued as a result of the exact aspects which produce recent play off teams a debateable bet–intermediate and beginner bettors simply can not help themselves out of earning wagers predicated on which a team did this past season or even annually earlier and also this may always impact the line.

By simply including teams who’ve experienced a substantial advancement within their racing game by the last season, the listing with this particular tendency improves to 152-79 ATS (65.8percent ) since 1994.

All the important points of the tendency are recorded below, for example one final’tightener’ that enriches it has results much farther.

Situational Trend #9-7 Summary

1 ) ) Rush Offense Rating (ROF) – Opponent ROF > 0.5.

3) Current Opponent has been a Playoff team Last Season.

1) Include only matches between Week 4 and 17.

ASMR: -0.1

Home percent: 50.5

Dog percent: 57.7

TDIS percent: 96.9

SPR: +1.2

Top Teams: PHI(17); MIN(16); ATL(1 3 ); OAK(1-2 )

Over All (Since’94): 135-52 ATS

2005 Season: 9 1 ATS

Pick in Brackets.

2007 WK15–MIN 20 CHI 1 3 (MIN -10) L

2007 WK14–CLE 2 4 NYJ 18 (CLE -3.5) W

2007 WK13–TB 27 NO 2-3 (TB +3) W

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